Best Actress in a Leading Role

WHO I'D PICK

NATALIE PORTMAN- BLACK SWAN

This one could be more of a cliche than Colin Firth's turn in "King's Speech", but the fact is you never expected wimpy Darth Vader's girlfriend to be this amazing!  She plays Nina, a young ballerina in New York aching for her big role.  When her company puts on "Swan Lake", she is the perfect choice for the role of the White Swan.  However, the role also requires performing the part of the seductive and dark Black Swan, which Nina cannot seem to master.  As the opening curtain comes closer and closer, Nina loses the controlled life she once had, and falls prey to rebellion, seduction, and dementia.  Watching Portman slip closer and closer to her wild side is the most on edge I've been put in a long time.  She was perfect for the role of the innocent dancer, and in the end became that mysterious and dark Black Swan.  I'll never look at Star Wars the same again.

MY FAVORITE MOMENT: The second(?) act of Swan Lake where Nina (symbolically and literally) transforms into the Black Swan and wins the cheers of the crowd.  Awesome.

WHO THEY'LL PICK (PROBABLY):

NATALIE PORTMAN- BLACK SWAN

As I said, this one is almost a shoe-in.  There have been talks that only one other nominee stands a chance against Queen Natalie: Annette Bening.  Although I loved her in "American Beauty" a decade ago, Bening's domineering lesbian failed to give me the wow, as did about every other nominee in this category.  You feel for Jennifer Lawrence's poor Ree, who has to take care of her younger brother and sister, pratically comatose mom, while at the same time hunting down her meth-addicted father.  But again, I think the goosebumps are the one's that will win out here.